The Kyoto treaty and environmental agreements

The Kyoto Protocol was drawn up in Japan in 1997 to implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Its objective is to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by establishing reduction targets and by developing national programs and policies. Kyoto attempted to uphold a new environmental standard and has succeeded in raising the profile of global warming, and in highlighting the difficulties involved in international cooperation on environmental matters.

The 'Earth Summit' and UNFCCC

The 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, resulted in the establishment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The UN aimed to become the principal point for international environmental cooperation. UNEP's main role has been in environmental assessment, research and monitoring, but it played a role in placing the link between environment and development on the international agenda. Attempts to address environmental concerns on a global scale reflected the increasing awareness by international organizations and nation-states of changes in the eco-system and the destruction of natural resources.

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED - the 'Earth Summit') held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 was unprecedented in terms of its size and the scope of its concerns. It put forward the message that a transformation of international attitudes and behaviour was needed, and recognized the need for unified global action on climate change, and its potential impact on the environment. Despite the conflicting interests involved in the negotiations, the Earth Summit sanctioned a comprehensive programme of action, and resulted in environmental agreements that included the adoption of Agenda 21, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the UNFCCC. The UN sought to encourage governments to rethink their policies so that all economic decisions took into account potential environmental consequences. The UNFCCC defined an overall objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas levels, and targeted industrialised nations to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

The Kyoto Treaty

The Kyoto Treaty represented an attempt to increase and set mandatory targets to tackle climate change. It binds industrialised nations to reduce worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% below their 1990 levels. Under the Kyoto Treaty the US agreed to cut its carbon emissions by 7%. As of 2001, it stood at a level about 13% above 1990 emissions. The EU agreed to cut its carbon emissions by 8%; in 2001 it stood at a level about 0.5% above 1990 emissions. Japan agreed to cut its carbon emissions by 8%; in 2001 it was around 2.7% above its 1990 emissions level (The Globalist 2001). Developing countries were left exempt from the targets.

However, the US pulled out of this commitment in March 2001, and President Bush has stated that the US will never sign the treaty. The Bonn Compromise, reached in July 2001, is a limited version of Kyoto lowering the requirements to about 2% below 1990 emissions. However, it is questionable to what extent Kyoto can survive and succeed without participation by the US. In order to become international law, the treaty needs to be ratified by a minimum of 55 countries, and it requires ratification by the nations that accounted for 55% of the industrialised world's CO2 emissions in 1990. The EU's decision that its 15 member states would ratify by 1 June means the first criteria has been met - 65 countries have so far ratified. Further negotiations are underway in Japan and Russia, however, there is strong opposition in Canada and Australia. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), without active efforts to reduce emissions, the planet is expected to warm by an unprecedented 2.5-10 degrees F during the 21st century (Baumert & Kete 2001).

Does the US have a point?

The US Administration argued the potential cost of implementing Kyoto made it detrimental to US economic growth. It was argued that the Treaty is unrealistic and many countries would be unlikely to meet the targets. Also, that the Treaty is fundamentally flawed as it excludes developing countries (which account for 80% of the world including India and China) whose carbon emissions will inevitably grow as they develop. This could mean that emissions reductions by developed countries become irrelevant.

The relationship between the global North and South is a dominant theme running through all attempts at international cooperation on the environment. Kyoto provides a good example of how their differing priorities can conflict. Many developing countries are unwilling to participate without financial assistance asserting their right to develop, while developed countries have proved unwilling to put forward this assistance and to take the lead by reducing their own emissions.

The principle agreed to in the UNFCCC states that all countries should take action to counter climate change, but in accordance with their responsibility and capability. This places the onus on developed, industrialized nations to act first. Developed countries are home to 20% of the world's people and responsible for around 63% of cumulative global carbon emissions from 1990-1999. China and India, home to 40% of the world's population have contributed just 7% and 2% respectively from 1900- 1999. The US currently accounts for around 25% of total global carbon emissions. In 1999, US emissions averaged about 5.6 tons of carbon per head. In the EU, the figure was less than half that. In India the average was _ ton, and in China _ ton per person (all figures - Baumert & Kete 2001).

While all countries have to act in order to meet UNFCCC objectives, it is argued that developing countries have urgent health and social issues that must take priority. Income levels in high-income regions, such as the US and the EU, average 14 times those in low income regions, while around 1/3 of the world's population lack access to electric power services (World Bank 2001, in Baumert & Kete). Although not currently bound by formal emissions requirements, many developing countries are already taking steps to increase renewable energy and improve energy efficiency.

The Implications of Kyoto for Environmental Agreements
Kyoto illustrates the complexity of reaching agreement in environmental politics. A number of complex factors play a part in global warming, such as the burning of fossil fuels, car-use, destruction of eco-systems in forests and oceans. In the case of climate change it is hard to be certain of causes and effects. A crucial factor in determining the success of environmental treaties is whether the international community as a whole can agree upon and accept the presence of a problem once it has been identified; to put it another way, whether we are covinced of the impending environmental catastrophe identified by science. For example, Garner (2000) points to a comparison with the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, adopted in 1989, which led to binding measures where CFCs could be proven to have a major effect on the ozone layer. Also, the development of cheap alternatives to CFCs meant that there was no great economic cost.

Environmental agreements are in danger of being weak, vague and ineffective. The Basel Convention on Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes, stipulates that hazardous wastes should be disposed of in an environmentally sound manner, but leaves the interpretation of this up to individual countries. Treaties that are less flexible such as the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), and the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling (ICRW), are consequently less likely to be accepted.

The implementation and enforcement of agreements is another issue. In the case of Kyoto, considerable diplomatic and international pressure has been put on the US and others to comply with the Treaty. The EU has played a role, while environmental organisations have been able to provide publicity and pressurise governments.

Kyoto and other international agreements have shown how contentious attempts to reach global agreements have been. The differing concerns of the developed and developing worlds will continue to impact on the environment; in particular, the reaction of the US to Kyoto is significant and has been highly criticized. International environmental organizations are demanding a plan of action which sets out goals, time-tables and means of implementation. It remains to be seen how much long-term progress in global environmental and sustainable development matters can be made at the next Earth Summit which will take place in Johannesburg in August this year.

Suggested Books:

The World Resources Institute has a number of publications on global climate change and the environment. Also, see reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Baumert, K. & Kete, N. (2001), The US, Developing Countries, and Climate Protection: Leadership or Stalemate?, World Resources Institute

MacKenzie, J. (1997), Climate Protection and the National Interest, World Reosurces Institute

Repetto, R. & Austin, D. (1997), The Costs of Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed, World Resources Institute and Earthscan

Garner, R. (2000), Environmental Politics: Britain, Europe and the Global Environment (2nd edition), Contemporary Political Studies

Elliot, L. (1998), The Global Politics of the Environment, Macmillan

Vogler, J. & Imber, M. (eds) (1996), The Environment and International Relations, Routledge

Suggested Websites:

UNFCCC, www.unfcc.int

World Resources Institute, www.wri.org
and EarthTrends, www.earthtrends.wri.org

The Globalist, www.theglobalist.com

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, www.ipcc.ch

Greenpeace, www.greenpeace.org

WWF Global Network, www.panda.org

Climate Action Network UK Initiative, www.canuk.org

World Conservation Union, www.iucn.org

United Nations Environmental Programme, www.unep.org

World Bank, www.worldbank.org

Anna Evans

Placed on Fabian Global Forum, June 2002